{"version":4,"calculationVersion":"forecast-performance-v5-per-market","generatedAt":"2026-09-02T20:27:22.088Z","refreshTtlHours":0.5,"methodology":{"sourceNotebook":"q-trade-analysis/forecast_performance.py","outcomeRule":"A market counts as resolved when the graph marks it closed/resolved, or when its end date falls on the report's UTC day or earlier while its YES odds are terminal. The projected basis instead admits every market at terminal odds, regardless of flags or end date. On either basis a forecast is scored NO only when terminal YES odds are strictly below 1%, and YES only when strictly above 99%; values exactly at 1% or 99% are excluded.","brierDefinition":"Mean squared error between the probability stated at forecast time and the report outcome; lower is better and 0.25 is the always-50% baseline.","qAdvantageDefinition":"Market-at-forecast Brier minus Quotient Brier; positive means Quotient was more accurate on that sample.","accuracyDefinition":"qAccuracy is the share of observations where the market resolved on Quotient's side — the stated probability sat on the winning side of 50%, with exactly 50% never counting as right. marketAccuracy applies the same rule to the market-at-forecast price. On mean_per_market the compared probability is the market's mean stated probability. Directional accuracy ignores confidence, so read it with the Brier comparison.","benchmarkDefinition":"The market YES probability stored with each forecast at creation time, regardless of the market's current price.","returnDefinition":"Hypothetical purchase of the side Quotient considered underpriced, using the market price stored at forecast creation; no fees, spread crossing, slippage, sizing, or overlapping-position constraints.","bases":{"resolved":"Markets explicitly flagged closed/resolved, plus markets at terminal odds whose end date is on or before the report's UTC day. This is the reporting default.","projected":"Every market at terminal YES odds (strictly below 1% or above 99%), including still-open ones, scored as if it settles the way its price points. A leading view, not settled history."},"scopes":{"all_markets":"Every valid forecast on a market with a binary terminal outcome, filtered per basis.","geopolitics_global_elections":"Eligible forecasts whose market Event has a geopolitics or global elections tag."},"periods":{"all_time":"Every eligible forecast in the selected scope and basis.","last_60_days":"Eligible forecasts created in the 60 days before generatedAt."},"samples":{"mean_per_market":"Each market is one observation scored on the mean Brier of every eligible forecast on it, so each market counts once regardless of forecast volume.","one_random_per_market":"One reproducibly selected forecast per market using a fixed SHA-256 key — a per-market robustness check on the mean view."}},"population":[{"scope":"all_markets","forecasts":5934,"markets":1177,"resolvedForecasts":5778,"resolvedMarkets":1146,"firstForecastAt":"2026-02-13T23:06:56.910Z","lastForecastAt":"2026-09-02T02:08:50.297Z"},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","forecasts":3976,"markets":643,"resolvedForecasts":3886,"resolvedMarkets":626,"firstForecastAt":"2026-02-13T23:06:56.910Z","lastForecastAt":"2026-09-02T02:08:50.297Z"}],"reporting":{"context":"Geopolitics and global elections are Quotient's most consistently forecasted categories, so that scope is the primary reporting cohort. Each period also includes all markets without the category filter. Every reported view weights each market once: mean_per_market (the primary) scores a market on the mean Brier of its forecasts, and one_random_per_market is its reproducibly sampled robustness check. samples score the resolved basis (explicitly flagged, or ended with terminal odds); projected repeats them counting every terminal-odds market as if it settles the way its price points.","primary":{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.14467848303130415,"marketBrier":0.1551492106002649,"qAdvantage":0.010470727568960675,"actualYesRate":0.3710691823899371,"qAccuracy":0.8176100628930818,"marketAccuracy":0.8050314465408805,"forecasts":1256,"markets":159},"primaryProjected":{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.13954174506686653,"marketBrier":0.15018188483398087,"qAdvantage":0.010640139767114271,"actualYesRate":0.38095238095238093,"qAccuracy":0.8273809523809523,"marketAccuracy":0.8095238095238095,"forecasts":1284,"markets":168},"periods":[{"period":"last_60_days","label":"Last 60 days","context":"Primary current-performance window; includes only forecasts whose markets have already resolved.","cohorts":[{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","label":"Geopolitics and global elections","context":"Primary reporting cohort because these are the categories Quotient has forecasted most consistently.","samples":[{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.14467848303130415,"marketBrier":0.1551492106002649,"qAdvantage":0.010470727568960675,"actualYesRate":0.3710691823899371,"qAccuracy":0.8176100628930818,"marketAccuracy":0.8050314465408805,"forecasts":1256,"markets":159},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.15259581406871528,"marketBrier":0.1621564355345912,"qAdvantage":0.009560621465875867,"actualYesRate":0.3710691823899371,"qAccuracy":0.779874213836478,"marketAccuracy":0.7610062893081762,"forecasts":159,"markets":159}],"projected":[{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.13954174506686653,"marketBrier":0.15018188483398087,"qAdvantage":0.010640139767114271,"actualYesRate":0.38095238095238093,"qAccuracy":0.8273809523809523,"marketAccuracy":0.8095238095238095,"forecasts":1284,"markets":168},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.146799153155933,"marketBrier":0.15659676636904765,"qAdvantage":0.009797613213114552,"actualYesRate":0.38095238095238093,"qAccuracy":0.7916666666666666,"marketAccuracy":0.7678571428571429,"forecasts":168,"markets":168}]},{"scope":"all_markets","label":"All markets","context":"Full-book comparison without the geopolitics/global-elections category filter.","samples":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.17115048172590586,"marketBrier":0.17362952340620355,"qAdvantage":0.00247904168029775,"actualYesRate":0.45471014492753625,"qAccuracy":0.7572463768115942,"marketAccuracy":0.7590579710144928,"forecasts":2779,"markets":552},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.17674510761997655,"marketBrier":0.17791718795289851,"qAdvantage":0.001172080332922155,"actualYesRate":0.45471014492753625,"qAccuracy":0.7336956521739131,"marketAccuracy":0.7155797101449275,"forecasts":552,"markets":552}],"projected":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.16645864491804774,"marketBrier":0.1701262253081757,"qAdvantage":0.003667580390128032,"actualYesRate":0.4607329842931937,"qAccuracy":0.7661431064572426,"marketAccuracy":0.7643979057591623,"forecasts":2861,"markets":573},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.17181905010329104,"marketBrier":0.17435127268760905,"qAdvantage":0.002532222584318229,"actualYesRate":0.4607329842931937,"qAccuracy":0.743455497382199,"marketAccuracy":0.7207678883071553,"forecasts":573,"markets":573}]}]},{"period":"all_time","label":"All time","context":"Long-run comparison across every eligible resolved forecast.","cohorts":[{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","label":"Geopolitics and global elections","context":"Primary reporting cohort because these are the categories Quotient has forecasted most consistently.","samples":[{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.13717832159340945,"marketBrier":0.12259378116418028,"qAdvantage":-0.01458454042922923,"actualYesRate":0.3258785942492013,"qAccuracy":0.8322683706070287,"marketAccuracy":0.8578274760383386,"forecasts":3886,"markets":626},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.13633939270203305,"marketBrier":0.12374510862619813,"qAdvantage":-0.012594284075835037,"actualYesRate":0.3258785942492013,"qAccuracy":0.8178913738019169,"marketAccuracy":0.8402555910543131,"forecasts":626,"markets":626}],"projected":[{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.1343502302070622,"marketBrier":0.12027449589255446,"qAdvantage":-0.014075734314507772,"actualYesRate":0.3250388802488336,"qAccuracy":0.8367029548989113,"marketAccuracy":0.8600311041990669,"forecasts":3976,"markets":643},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.13333687705863181,"marketBrier":0.12132000583203735,"qAdvantage":-0.012016871226594578,"actualYesRate":0.3250388802488336,"qAccuracy":0.8227060653188181,"marketAccuracy":0.8429237947122862,"forecasts":643,"markets":643}]},{"scope":"all_markets","label":"All markets","context":"Full-book comparison without the geopolitics/global-elections category filter.","samples":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.15443919488431895,"marketBrier":0.14405431662220058,"qAdvantage":-0.010384878262118273,"actualYesRate":0.38917975567190227,"qAccuracy":0.7931937172774869,"marketAccuracy":0.81239092495637,"forecasts":5778,"markets":1146},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.15505562734944406,"marketBrier":0.14546101614310633,"qAdvantage":-0.009594611206337658,"actualYesRate":0.38917975567190227,"qAccuracy":0.7801047120418848,"marketAccuracy":0.7888307155322862,"forecasts":1146,"markets":1146}],"projected":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.15121058006207289,"marketBrier":0.14172007203233053,"qAdvantage":-0.009490508029742243,"actualYesRate":0.3899745114698386,"qAccuracy":0.7986406117247239,"marketAccuracy":0.8156329651656754,"forecasts":5934,"markets":1177},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.1517238505513918,"marketBrier":0.14312617523364474,"qAdvantage":-0.008597675317746986,"actualYesRate":0.3899745114698386,"qAccuracy":0.7858963466440102,"marketAccuracy":0.7918436703483432,"forecasts":1177,"markets":1177}]}]}]},"accuracy":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.15443919488431895,"marketBrier":0.14405431662220058,"qAdvantage":-0.010384878262118273,"actualYesRate":0.38917975567190227,"qAccuracy":0.7931937172774869,"marketAccuracy":0.81239092495637,"forecasts":5778,"markets":1146},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.15505562734944406,"marketBrier":0.14546101614310633,"qAdvantage":-0.009594611206337658,"actualYesRate":0.38917975567190227,"qAccuracy":0.7801047120418848,"marketAccuracy":0.7888307155322862,"forecasts":1146,"markets":1146},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.17115048172590586,"marketBrier":0.17362952340620355,"qAdvantage":0.00247904168029775,"actualYesRate":0.45471014492753625,"qAccuracy":0.7572463768115942,"marketAccuracy":0.7590579710144928,"forecasts":2779,"markets":552},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.17674510761997655,"marketBrier":0.17791718795289851,"qAdvantage":0.001172080332922155,"actualYesRate":0.45471014492753625,"qAccuracy":0.7336956521739131,"marketAccuracy":0.7155797101449275,"forecasts":552,"markets":552},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.15121058006207289,"marketBrier":0.14172007203233053,"qAdvantage":-0.009490508029742243,"actualYesRate":0.3899745114698386,"qAccuracy":0.7986406117247239,"marketAccuracy":0.8156329651656754,"forecasts":5934,"markets":1177},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.1517238505513918,"marketBrier":0.14312617523364474,"qAdvantage":-0.008597675317746986,"actualYesRate":0.3899745114698386,"qAccuracy":0.7858963466440102,"marketAccuracy":0.7918436703483432,"forecasts":1177,"markets":1177},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.16645864491804774,"marketBrier":0.1701262253081757,"qAdvantage":0.003667580390128032,"actualYesRate":0.4607329842931937,"qAccuracy":0.7661431064572426,"marketAccuracy":0.7643979057591623,"forecasts":2861,"markets":573},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.17181905010329104,"marketBrier":0.17435127268760905,"qAdvantage":0.002532222584318229,"actualYesRate":0.4607329842931937,"qAccuracy":0.743455497382199,"marketAccuracy":0.7207678883071553,"forecasts":573,"markets":573},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.13717832159340945,"marketBrier":0.12259378116418028,"qAdvantage":-0.01458454042922923,"actualYesRate":0.3258785942492013,"qAccuracy":0.8322683706070287,"marketAccuracy":0.8578274760383386,"forecasts":3886,"markets":626},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.13633939270203305,"marketBrier":0.12374510862619813,"qAdvantage":-0.012594284075835037,"actualYesRate":0.3258785942492013,"qAccuracy":0.8178913738019169,"marketAccuracy":0.8402555910543131,"forecasts":626,"markets":626},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.14467848303130415,"marketBrier":0.1551492106002649,"qAdvantage":0.010470727568960675,"actualYesRate":0.3710691823899371,"qAccuracy":0.8176100628930818,"marketAccuracy":0.8050314465408805,"forecasts":1256,"markets":159},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","qBrier":0.15259581406871528,"marketBrier":0.1621564355345912,"qAdvantage":0.009560621465875867,"actualYesRate":0.3710691823899371,"qAccuracy":0.779874213836478,"marketAccuracy":0.7610062893081762,"forecasts":159,"markets":159},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.1343502302070622,"marketBrier":0.12027449589255446,"qAdvantage":-0.014075734314507772,"actualYesRate":0.3250388802488336,"qAccuracy":0.8367029548989113,"marketAccuracy":0.8600311041990669,"forecasts":3976,"markets":643},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.13333687705863181,"marketBrier":0.12132000583203735,"qAdvantage":-0.012016871226594578,"actualYesRate":0.3250388802488336,"qAccuracy":0.8227060653188181,"marketAccuracy":0.8429237947122862,"forecasts":643,"markets":643},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"mean_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.13954174506686653,"marketBrier":0.15018188483398087,"qAdvantage":0.010640139767114271,"actualYesRate":0.38095238095238093,"qAccuracy":0.8273809523809523,"marketAccuracy":0.8095238095238095,"forecasts":1284,"markets":168},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","qBrier":0.146799153155933,"marketBrier":0.15659676636904765,"qAdvantage":0.009797613213114552,"actualYesRate":0.38095238095238093,"qAccuracy":0.7916666666666666,"marketAccuracy":0.7678571428571429,"forecasts":168,"markets":168}],"calibration":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.04372555939529109,"actualYesRate":0.06506849315068493,"calibrationGap":0.02134293375539384,"forecasts":292,"markets":292},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.14963249386685873,"actualYesRate":0.20915032679738563,"calibrationGap":0.0595178329305269,"forecasts":153,"markets":153},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.25117256228188134,"actualYesRate":0.23333333333333334,"calibrationGap":-0.017839228948548003,"forecasts":120,"markets":120},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3433530858336302,"actualYesRate":0.3944954128440367,"calibrationGap":0.051142327010406496,"forecasts":109,"markets":109},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.44662447665431554,"actualYesRate":0.3977272727272727,"calibrationGap":-0.04889720392704283,"forecasts":88,"markets":88},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5491946146475293,"actualYesRate":0.5714285714285714,"calibrationGap":0.02223395678104212,"forecasts":77,"markets":77},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6460210185017136,"actualYesRate":0.6829268292682927,"calibrationGap":0.03690581076657917,"forecasts":82,"markets":82},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7537378474197975,"actualYesRate":0.7285714285714285,"calibrationGap":-0.02516641884836901,"forecasts":70,"markets":70},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8489479553707017,"actualYesRate":0.8674698795180723,"calibrationGap":0.01852192414737064,"forecasts":83,"markets":83},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9451349718177653,"actualYesRate":0.9166666666666666,"calibrationGap":-0.02846830515109866,"forecasts":72,"markets":72},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.045058479532163735,"actualYesRate":0.005847953216374269,"calibrationGap":-0.039210526315789467,"forecasts":171,"markets":171},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.1539562841530054,"actualYesRate":0.11475409836065574,"calibrationGap":-0.03920218579234967,"forecasts":183,"markets":183},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24446891191709855,"actualYesRate":0.22279792746113988,"calibrationGap":-0.021670984455958664,"forecasts":193,"markets":193},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3466111111111111,"actualYesRate":0.34074074074074073,"calibrationGap":-0.005870370370370359,"forecasts":135,"markets":135},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.44795930232558145,"actualYesRate":0.43023255813953487,"calibrationGap":-0.017726744186046584,"forecasts":86,"markets":86},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5355432692307691,"actualYesRate":0.6538461538461539,"calibrationGap":0.11830288461538474,"forecasts":104,"markets":104},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.652698795180723,"actualYesRate":0.7469879518072289,"calibrationGap":0.09428915662650583,"forecasts":83,"markets":83},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7507888888888892,"actualYesRate":0.8777777777777778,"calibrationGap":0.1269888888888886,"forecasts":90,"markets":90},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8393937499999999,"actualYesRate":0.85,"calibrationGap":0.01060625000000004,"forecasts":80,"markets":80},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9515952380952383,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.04840476190476173,"forecasts":21,"markets":21},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.056267607631666966,"actualYesRate":0.06666666666666667,"calibrationGap":0.0103990590349997,"forecasts":45,"markets":45},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.15739309589016143,"actualYesRate":0.1206896551724138,"calibrationGap":-0.03670344071774763,"forecasts":58,"markets":58},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.2521835639117965,"actualYesRate":0.2,"calibrationGap":-0.052183563911796516,"forecasts":70,"markets":70},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3451923389819953,"actualYesRate":0.42857142857142855,"calibrationGap":0.08337908958943324,"forecasts":63,"markets":63},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.44687665069060245,"actualYesRate":0.3484848484848485,"calibrationGap":-0.09839180220575394,"forecasts":66,"markets":66},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5478255358403875,"actualYesRate":0.5098039215686274,"calibrationGap":-0.038021614271760096,"forecasts":51,"markets":51},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6515391173859679,"actualYesRate":0.574468085106383,"calibrationGap":-0.0770710322795849,"forecasts":47,"markets":47},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7505618522958815,"actualYesRate":0.7115384615384616,"calibrationGap":-0.039023390757419896,"forecasts":52,"markets":52},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8528847326503318,"actualYesRate":0.8363636363636363,"calibrationGap":-0.016521096286695514,"forecasts":55,"markets":55},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9398851104639803,"actualYesRate":0.9111111111111111,"calibrationGap":-0.028773999352869173,"forecasts":45,"markets":45},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.048074074074074075,"actualYesRate":0,"calibrationGap":-0.048074074074074075,"forecasts":27,"markets":27},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.16170779220779224,"actualYesRate":0.14285714285714285,"calibrationGap":-0.018850649350649396,"forecasts":77,"markets":77},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.2436951219512195,"actualYesRate":0.21951219512195122,"calibrationGap":-0.024182926829268286,"forecasts":82,"markets":82},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3453875000000001,"actualYesRate":0.35,"calibrationGap":0.004612499999999853,"forecasts":80,"markets":80},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4516612903225805,"actualYesRate":0.45161290322580644,"calibrationGap":-0.000048387096774071825,"forecasts":62,"markets":62},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5341811594202898,"actualYesRate":0.6376811594202898,"calibrationGap":0.10350000000000004,"forecasts":69,"markets":69},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6615365853658539,"actualYesRate":0.6341463414634146,"calibrationGap":-0.02739024390243927,"forecasts":41,"markets":41},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.750811320754717,"actualYesRate":0.8490566037735849,"calibrationGap":0.09824528301886792,"forecasts":53,"markets":53},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8412843137254903,"actualYesRate":0.803921568627451,"calibrationGap":-0.037362745098039274,"forecasts":51,"markets":51},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9448000000000001,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.055199999999999916,"forecasts":10,"markets":10},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.04322578616445116,"actualYesRate":0.06209150326797386,"calibrationGap":0.018865717103522694,"forecasts":306,"markets":306},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.14950240041158838,"actualYesRate":0.2077922077922078,"calibrationGap":0.058289807380619424,"forecasts":154,"markets":154},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.2511347650396403,"actualYesRate":0.22764227642276422,"calibrationGap":-0.023492488616876056,"forecasts":123,"markets":123},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3433530858336302,"actualYesRate":0.3944954128440367,"calibrationGap":0.051142327010406496,"forecasts":109,"markets":109},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.44662447665431554,"actualYesRate":0.3977272727272727,"calibrationGap":-0.04889720392704283,"forecasts":88,"markets":88},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5491069728948559,"actualYesRate":0.5769230769230769,"calibrationGap":0.02781610402822099,"forecasts":78,"markets":78},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6468325898996384,"actualYesRate":0.6904761904761905,"calibrationGap":0.04364360057655203,"forecasts":84,"markets":84},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7541619436778928,"actualYesRate":0.7361111111111112,"calibrationGap":-0.01805083256678164,"forecasts":72,"markets":72},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8495764006725094,"actualYesRate":0.8764044943820225,"calibrationGap":0.026828093709513112,"forecasts":89,"markets":89},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9445672704547872,"actualYesRate":0.918918918918919,"calibrationGap":-0.025648351535868197,"forecasts":74,"markets":74},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.044021857923497255,"actualYesRate":0.00546448087431694,"calibrationGap":-0.038557377049180316,"forecasts":183,"markets":183},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.1535833333333333,"actualYesRate":0.11290322580645161,"calibrationGap":-0.040680107526881684,"forecasts":186,"markets":186},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24447435897435907,"actualYesRate":0.2205128205128205,"calibrationGap":-0.023961538461538562,"forecasts":195,"markets":195},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3466111111111111,"actualYesRate":0.34074074074074073,"calibrationGap":-0.005870370370370359,"forecasts":135,"markets":135},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.44828977272727283,"actualYesRate":0.4431818181818182,"calibrationGap":-0.0051079545454546516,"forecasts":88,"markets":88},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5352047619047618,"actualYesRate":0.6476190476190476,"calibrationGap":0.1124142857142858,"forecasts":105,"markets":105},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6527790697674419,"actualYesRate":0.7558139534883721,"calibrationGap":0.10303488372093017,"forecasts":86,"markets":86},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.750882978723404,"actualYesRate":0.8829787234042553,"calibrationGap":0.13209574468085128,"forecasts":94,"markets":94},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8382916666666664,"actualYesRate":0.8571428571428571,"calibrationGap":0.01885119047619066,"forecasts":84,"markets":84},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9515952380952383,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.04840476190476173,"forecasts":21,"markets":21},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.05522095033310356,"actualYesRate":0.061224489795918366,"calibrationGap":0.0060035394628148026,"forecasts":49,"markets":49},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.156921994294654,"actualYesRate":0.11864406779661017,"calibrationGap":-0.03827792649804383,"forecasts":59,"markets":59},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.2520783301352842,"actualYesRate":0.1917808219178082,"calibrationGap":-0.06029750821747598,"forecasts":73,"markets":73},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3451923389819953,"actualYesRate":0.42857142857142855,"calibrationGap":0.08337908958943324,"forecasts":63,"markets":63},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.44687665069060245,"actualYesRate":0.3484848484848485,"calibrationGap":-0.09839180220575394,"forecasts":66,"markets":66},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5477204016499763,"actualYesRate":0.5192307692307693,"calibrationGap":-0.02848963241920699,"forecasts":52,"markets":52},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6527051541136654,"actualYesRate":0.5918367346938775,"calibrationGap":-0.06086841941978782,"forecasts":49,"markets":49},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7512449434223757,"actualYesRate":0.7222222222222222,"calibrationGap":-0.02902272120015348,"forecasts":54,"markets":54},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.852643628654431,"actualYesRate":0.8524590163934426,"calibrationGap":-0.00018461226098842598,"forecasts":61,"markets":61},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9392146811415801,"actualYesRate":0.9148936170212766,"calibrationGap":-0.024321064120303548,"forecasts":47,"markets":47},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.047116666666666675,"actualYesRate":0,"calibrationGap":-0.047116666666666675,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.16055000000000003,"actualYesRate":0.1375,"calibrationGap":-0.023050000000000015,"forecasts":80,"markets":80},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.2440722891566265,"actualYesRate":0.21686746987951808,"calibrationGap":-0.02720481927710841,"forecasts":83,"markets":83},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3453875000000001,"actualYesRate":0.35,"calibrationGap":0.004612499999999853,"forecasts":80,"markets":80},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4519999999999999,"actualYesRate":0.46875,"calibrationGap":0.016750000000000098,"forecasts":64,"markets":64},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5336928571428571,"actualYesRate":0.6285714285714286,"calibrationGap":0.09487857142857148,"forecasts":70,"markets":70},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6610909090909093,"actualYesRate":0.6590909090909091,"calibrationGap":-0.002000000000000224,"forecasts":44,"markets":44},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7509649122807018,"actualYesRate":0.8596491228070176,"calibrationGap":0.10868421052631572,"forecasts":57,"markets":57},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8392685185185187,"actualYesRate":0.8148148148148148,"calibrationGap":-0.024453703703703922,"forecasts":54,"markets":54},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9417272727272727,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.058272727272727254,"forecasts":11,"markets":11},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.0420412553184203,"actualYesRate":0.06086956521739131,"calibrationGap":0.01882830989897101,"forecasts":230,"markets":230},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.14782783353364107,"actualYesRate":0.24299065420560748,"calibrationGap":0.09516282067196641,"forecasts":107,"markets":107},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24960470428301013,"actualYesRate":0.26229508196721313,"calibrationGap":0.012690377684203002,"forecasts":61,"markets":61},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.34025640613045394,"actualYesRate":0.3333333333333333,"calibrationGap":-0.006923072797120622,"forecasts":45,"markets":45},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4443107208458659,"actualYesRate":0.4186046511627907,"calibrationGap":-0.025706069683075206,"forecasts":43,"markets":43},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5510119467547091,"actualYesRate":0.64,"calibrationGap":0.08898805324529091,"forecasts":25,"markets":25},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.642291026128064,"actualYesRate":0.8,"calibrationGap":0.15770897387193605,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7625950393436242,"actualYesRate":0.72,"calibrationGap":-0.042595039343624186,"forecasts":25,"markets":25},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8394123359348494,"actualYesRate":0.9333333333333333,"calibrationGap":0.09392099739848392,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9559367109962357,"actualYesRate":0.9666666666666667,"calibrationGap":0.010729955670431002,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.04285937499999999,"actualYesRate":0.0078125,"calibrationGap":-0.03504687499999999,"forecasts":128,"markets":128},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.1500528455284553,"actualYesRate":0.08943089430894309,"calibrationGap":-0.06062195121951221,"forecasts":123,"markets":123},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24520588235294122,"actualYesRate":0.226890756302521,"calibrationGap":-0.01831512605042021,"forecasts":119,"markets":119},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3465967741935484,"actualYesRate":0.3064516129032258,"calibrationGap":-0.040145161290322584,"forecasts":62,"markets":62},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4408333333333333,"actualYesRate":0.4,"calibrationGap":-0.04083333333333328,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5393888888888889,"actualYesRate":0.6388888888888888,"calibrationGap":0.09949999999999992,"forecasts":36,"markets":36},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.649611111111111,"actualYesRate":0.8,"calibrationGap":0.15038888888888902,"forecasts":45,"markets":45},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7540285714285713,"actualYesRate":0.9142857142857143,"calibrationGap":0.160257142857143,"forecasts":35,"markets":35},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8350277777777777,"actualYesRate":0.8611111111111112,"calibrationGap":0.02608333333333346,"forecasts":36,"markets":36},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9631250000000001,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.03687499999999988,"forecasts":12,"markets":12},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.04708555318420305,"actualYesRate":0.08695652173913043,"calibrationGap":0.03987096855492738,"forecasts":23,"markets":23},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.1560146396033199,"actualYesRate":0.1,"calibrationGap":-0.0560146396033199,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.25396343845054475,"actualYesRate":0.28,"calibrationGap":0.026036561549455273,"forecasts":25,"markets":25},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.34491175235185695,"actualYesRate":0.36363636363636365,"calibrationGap":0.018724611284506698,"forecasts":11,"markets":11},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4422189581821762,"actualYesRate":0.3333333333333333,"calibrationGap":-0.1088856248488429,"forecasts":24,"markets":24},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5482937086084659,"actualYesRate":0.5,"calibrationGap":-0.048293708608465935,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6562269639736543,"actualYesRate":0.5,"calibrationGap":-0.15622696397365432,"forecasts":6,"markets":6},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7560216652992172,"actualYesRate":0.6666666666666666,"calibrationGap":-0.08935499863255059,"forecasts":12,"markets":12},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8383680065037901,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.16163199349620994,"forecasts":12,"markets":12},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9463605412358844,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.05363945876411558,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.03796666666666667,"actualYesRate":0,"calibrationGap":-0.03796666666666667,"forecasts":15,"markets":15},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.15799999999999997,"actualYesRate":0.09375,"calibrationGap":-0.06424999999999997,"forecasts":32,"markets":32},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24836666666666665,"actualYesRate":0.26666666666666666,"calibrationGap":0.01830000000000001,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.34547500000000003,"actualYesRate":0.35,"calibrationGap":0.004524999999999946,"forecasts":20,"markets":20},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4441153846153846,"actualYesRate":0.46153846153846156,"calibrationGap":0.017423076923076986,"forecasts":13,"markets":13},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5525,"actualYesRate":0.625,"calibrationGap":0.07250000000000001,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6571428571428571,"actualYesRate":0.5714285714285714,"calibrationGap":-0.08571428571428574,"forecasts":14,"markets":14},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.755,"actualYesRate":0.8,"calibrationGap":0.04500000000000004,"forecasts":10,"markets":10},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8364285714285715,"actualYesRate":0.7857142857142857,"calibrationGap":-0.05071428571428582,"forecasts":14,"markets":14},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"resolved","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9843333333333334,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.015666666666666607,"forecasts":3,"markets":3},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.041313169680152764,"actualYesRate":0.058333333333333334,"calibrationGap":0.01702016365318057,"forecasts":240,"markets":240},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.14782783353364107,"actualYesRate":0.24299065420560748,"calibrationGap":0.09516282067196641,"forecasts":107,"markets":107},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24912707875021614,"actualYesRate":0.25396825396825395,"calibrationGap":0.004841175218037813,"forecasts":63,"markets":63},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.34025640613045394,"actualYesRate":0.3333333333333333,"calibrationGap":-0.006923072797120622,"forecasts":45,"markets":45},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4443107208458659,"actualYesRate":0.4186046511627907,"calibrationGap":-0.025706069683075206,"forecasts":43,"markets":43},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5510119467547091,"actualYesRate":0.64,"calibrationGap":0.08898805324529091,"forecasts":25,"markets":25},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6446545255709697,"actualYesRate":0.8125,"calibrationGap":0.1678454744290303,"forecasts":32,"markets":32},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7625950393436242,"actualYesRate":0.72,"calibrationGap":-0.042595039343624186,"forecasts":25,"markets":25},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8411642040846175,"actualYesRate":0.9393939393939394,"calibrationGap":0.098229735309322,"forecasts":33,"markets":33},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9559367109962357,"actualYesRate":0.9666666666666667,"calibrationGap":0.010729955670431002,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.041452554744525534,"actualYesRate":0.0072992700729927005,"calibrationGap":-0.034153284671532835,"forecasts":137,"markets":137},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.14959523809523806,"actualYesRate":0.0873015873015873,"calibrationGap":-0.06229365079365076,"forecasts":126,"markets":126},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24520588235294122,"actualYesRate":0.226890756302521,"calibrationGap":-0.01831512605042021,"forecasts":119,"markets":119},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.3465967741935484,"actualYesRate":0.3064516129032258,"calibrationGap":-0.040145161290322584,"forecasts":62,"markets":62},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4419354838709677,"actualYesRate":0.41935483870967744,"calibrationGap":-0.02258064516129027,"forecasts":31,"markets":31},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5393888888888889,"actualYesRate":0.6388888888888888,"calibrationGap":0.09949999999999992,"forecasts":36,"markets":36},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.649945652173913,"actualYesRate":0.8043478260869565,"calibrationGap":0.15440217391304356,"forecasts":46,"markets":46},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7540285714285713,"actualYesRate":0.9142857142857143,"calibrationGap":0.160257142857143,"forecasts":35,"markets":35},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8337435897435898,"actualYesRate":0.8717948717948718,"calibrationGap":0.038051282051282054,"forecasts":39,"markets":39},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9631250000000001,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.03687499999999988,"forecasts":12,"markets":12},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.04687074892946681,"actualYesRate":0.08,"calibrationGap":0.03312925107053319,"forecasts":25,"markets":25},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.1560146396033199,"actualYesRate":0.1,"calibrationGap":-0.0560146396033199,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.2525261096764303,"actualYesRate":0.25925925925925924,"calibrationGap":0.006733149582828946,"forecasts":27,"markets":27},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.34491175235185695,"actualYesRate":0.36363636363636365,"calibrationGap":0.018724611284506698,"forecasts":11,"markets":11},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4422189581821762,"actualYesRate":0.3333333333333333,"calibrationGap":-0.1088856248488429,"forecasts":24,"markets":24},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5482937086084659,"actualYesRate":0.5,"calibrationGap":-0.048293708608465935,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6621969772838796,"actualYesRate":0.625,"calibrationGap":-0.037196977283879606,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.7560216652992172,"actualYesRate":0.6666666666666666,"calibrationGap":-0.08935499863255059,"forecasts":12,"markets":12},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8392964281906199,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.1607035718093801,"forecasts":15,"markets":15},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"quotient","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9463605412358844,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.05363945876411558,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"0-10%","binIndex":0,"meanProbability":0.036375,"actualYesRate":0,"calibrationGap":-0.036375,"forecasts":16,"markets":16},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"10-20%","binIndex":1,"meanProbability":0.15567142857142857,"actualYesRate":0.08571428571428572,"calibrationGap":-0.06995714285714286,"forecasts":35,"markets":35},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"20-30%","binIndex":2,"meanProbability":0.24836666666666665,"actualYesRate":0.26666666666666666,"calibrationGap":0.01830000000000001,"forecasts":30,"markets":30},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"30-40%","binIndex":3,"meanProbability":0.34547500000000003,"actualYesRate":0.35,"calibrationGap":0.004524999999999946,"forecasts":20,"markets":20},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"40-50%","binIndex":4,"meanProbability":0.4463214285714285,"actualYesRate":0.5,"calibrationGap":0.05367857142857152,"forecasts":14,"markets":14},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"50-60%","binIndex":5,"meanProbability":0.5525,"actualYesRate":0.625,"calibrationGap":0.07250000000000001,"forecasts":8,"markets":8},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"60-70%","binIndex":6,"meanProbability":0.6576666666666665,"actualYesRate":0.6,"calibrationGap":-0.05766666666666653,"forecasts":15,"markets":15},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"70-80%","binIndex":7,"meanProbability":0.755,"actualYesRate":0.8,"calibrationGap":0.04500000000000004,"forecasts":10,"markets":10},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"80-90%","binIndex":8,"meanProbability":0.8321875000000001,"actualYesRate":0.8125,"calibrationGap":-0.01968750000000008,"forecasts":16,"markets":16},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","sample":"one_random_per_market","basis":"projected","source":"market_at_forecast","probabilityBin":"90-100%","binIndex":9,"meanProbability":0.9660000000000001,"actualYesRate":1,"calibrationGap":0.03399999999999992,"forecasts":4,"markets":4}],"hypotheticalReturns":[{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":14.221882549748539,"medianReturnPct":11.724137931034493,"positiveShare":0.6845110635260528,"forecasts":1401,"markets":288},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-2.7811251399838537,"medianReturnPct":-15.174485125858125,"positiveShare":0.39805825242718446,"forecasts":206,"markets":85},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":17.1529449632087,"medianReturnPct":13.673232908458862,"positiveShare":0.7338912133891213,"forecasts":1195,"markets":246},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":5.75786181736431,"medianReturnPct":22.699386503067494,"positiveShare":0.5891144952058658,"forecasts":3546,"markets":808},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":8.82549635550126,"medianReturnPct":23.456790123456784,"positiveShare":0.5692832764505119,"forecasts":1465,"markets":465},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":3.5982824812899836,"medianReturnPct":22.699386503067494,"positiveShare":0.6030754444978376,"forecasts":2081,"markets":472},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":16.5908084840809,"medianReturnPct":14.251592356687901,"positiveShare":0.6950880444856349,"forecasts":1079,"markets":225},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-0.8041238377023683,"medianReturnPct":-17.879496710245235,"positiveShare":0.4014084507042254,"forecasts":142,"markets":65},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":19.226966850882633,"medianReturnPct":15.929203539823025,"positiveShare":0.7395944503735326,"forecasts":937,"markets":196},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":10.222876452964911,"medianReturnPct":27.796831618487666,"positiveShare":0.5849436392914654,"forecasts":2484,"markets":605},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":21.90904620402323,"medianReturnPct":32.450331125827816,"positiveShare":0.6040339702760085,"forecasts":942,"markets":330},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":3.083854464964261,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5732814526588845,"forecasts":1542,"markets":355},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":18.39366029692449,"medianReturnPct":15.503875968992245,"positiveShare":0.7056694813027744,"forecasts":829,"markets":189},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-2.0529090440790827,"medianReturnPct":-21.38364779874214,"positiveShare":0.3904761904761905,"forecasts":105,"markets":56},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":21.35897767372749,"medianReturnPct":17.000133386688006,"positiveShare":0.7513812154696132,"forecasts":724,"markets":158},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":11.432700813658622,"medianReturnPct":30.71895424836601,"positiveShare":0.5605355064027939,"forecasts":1718,"markets":454},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":32.61762020607671,"medianReturnPct":44.92753623188407,"positiveShare":0.615257048092869,"forecasts":603,"markets":240},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":-0.024255593182732862,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5309417040358745,"forecasts":1115,"markets":270},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":12.562301891316974,"medianReturnPct":24.999999999999993,"positiveShare":0.5868961687951139,"forecasts":1801,"markets":425},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-0.06260757287900066,"medianReturnPct":20.48192771084338,"positiveShare":0.5575757575757576,"forecasts":1155,"markets":321},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":35.134701939531126,"medianReturnPct":34.22818791946309,"positiveShare":0.6393188854489165,"forecasts":646,"markets":171},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":25.297355058575455,"medianReturnPct":34.22818791946309,"positiveShare":0.6134020618556701,"forecasts":1164,"markets":311},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":14.677633454545719,"medianReturnPct":32.450331125827816,"positiveShare":0.6035665294924554,"forecasts":729,"markets":228},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":43.09454367774246,"medianReturnPct":40.845070422535215,"positiveShare":0.6298850574712643,"forecasts":435,"markets":118},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":34.85296444428947,"medianReturnPct":47.54865676840684,"positiveShare":0.6142061281337048,"forecasts":718,"markets":214},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":28.332098035314015,"medianReturnPct":44.92753623188407,"positiveShare":0.6224719101123596,"forecasts":445,"markets":157},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":45.482215550494836,"medianReturnPct":49.2537313432836,"positiveShare":0.6007326007326007,"forecasts":273,"markets":83},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":14.124114317185102,"medianReturnPct":11.594202898550735,"positiveShare":0.681592039800995,"forecasts":1407,"markets":290},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-2.7811251399838537,"medianReturnPct":-15.174485125858125,"positiveShare":0.39805825242718446,"forecasts":206,"markets":85},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":17.023764049222425,"medianReturnPct":13.496932515337438,"positiveShare":0.7302248126561199,"forecasts":1201,"markets":248},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":5.837912514303178,"medianReturnPct":22.699386503067494,"positiveShare":0.592797783933518,"forecasts":3610,"markets":827},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":8.988126348034468,"medianReturnPct":23.456790123456784,"positiveShare":0.5763612217795485,"forecasts":1506,"markets":478},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":3.5830541333148926,"medianReturnPct":22.699386503067494,"positiveShare":0.6045627376425855,"forecasts":2104,"markets":479},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":16.48385260119546,"medianReturnPct":14.16666666666668,"positiveShare":0.6925207756232687,"forecasts":1083,"markets":227},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-0.8041238377023683,"medianReturnPct":-17.879496710245235,"positiveShare":0.4014084507042254,"forecasts":142,"markets":65},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":19.092665198776217,"medianReturnPct":15.686274509803921,"positiveShare":0.7364505844845909,"forecasts":941,"markets":198},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":10.23603383737785,"medianReturnPct":28.2051282051282,"positiveShare":0.588351822503962,"forecasts":2524,"markets":621},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":21.861969541007294,"medianReturnPct":32.450331125827816,"positiveShare":0.6103626943005181,"forecasts":965,"markets":340},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":3.0397362401985926,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5747273893521488,"forecasts":1559,"markets":362},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":18.27119353318684,"medianReturnPct":15.483870967741934,"positiveShare":0.703125,"forecasts":832,"markets":190},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-2.0529090440790827,"medianReturnPct":-21.38364779874214,"positiveShare":0.3904761904761905,"forecasts":105,"markets":56},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":21.206586615185348,"medianReturnPct":16.79389312977099,"positiveShare":0.7482806052269602,"forecasts":727,"markets":159},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":11.294542376650382,"medianReturnPct":30.71895424836601,"positiveShare":0.5606936416184971,"forecasts":1730,"markets":462},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":32.30039511546224,"medianReturnPct":44.92753623188407,"positiveShare":0.6144975288303131,"forecasts":607,"markets":243},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":-0.059467073446497605,"medianReturnPct":25.944584382871533,"positiveShare":0.5316117542297417,"forecasts":1123,"markets":275},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":12.580393772154537,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.59375,"forecasts":1856,"markets":443},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":0.44686820456130766,"medianReturnPct":21.212121212121218,"positiveShare":0.5668896321070234,"forecasts":1196,"markets":334},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":34.567812831005284,"medianReturnPct":33.780760626398205,"positiveShare":0.6424242424242425,"forecasts":660,"markets":177},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":25.10596044539585,"medianReturnPct":34.22818791946309,"positiveShare":0.6202003338898163,"forecasts":1198,"markets":326},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":14.838396105380305,"medianReturnPct":32.014639247124435,"positiveShare":0.6117021276595744,"forecasts":752,"markets":238},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":42.418086866229196,"medianReturnPct":38.895587171449236,"positiveShare":0.6345291479820628,"forecasts":446,"markets":124},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":34.69409461449723,"medianReturnPct":47.058823529411754,"positiveShare":0.6162310866574966,"forecasts":727,"markets":221},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":27.941421996739546,"medianReturnPct":44.92753623188407,"positiveShare":0.621380846325167,"forecasts":449,"markets":160},{"scope":"all_markets","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":45.60038959785403,"medianReturnPct":49.2537313432836,"positiveShare":0.6079136690647482,"forecasts":278,"markets":87},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":15.804689085887896,"medianReturnPct":12.422360248447218,"positiveShare":0.7005430566330488,"forecasts":1289,"markets":247},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":0.213022892236535,"medianReturnPct":-16.767746662324978,"positiveShare":0.39375,"forecasts":160,"markets":66},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":18.014314055758785,"medianReturnPct":14.018691588785062,"positiveShare":0.7440212577502214,"forecasts":1129,"markets":218},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":5.600713174028287,"medianReturnPct":21.951219512195113,"positiveShare":0.5875802997858672,"forecasts":2335,"markets":448},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":10.781751992665045,"medianReturnPct":-100,"positiveShare":0.48816029143898,"forecasts":549,"markets":196},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":4.008109416227838,"medianReturnPct":23.266856600189932,"positiveShare":0.6181410974244121,"forecasts":1786,"markets":340},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":17.959297830463775,"medianReturnPct":14.760348583877995,"positiveShare":0.7065868263473054,"forecasts":1002,"markets":195},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":1.7973928926015292,"medianReturnPct":-21.507064364207224,"positiveShare":0.3761467889908257,"forecasts":109,"markets":50},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":19.932027548523113,"medianReturnPct":16.149068322981382,"positiveShare":0.7469204927211646,"forecasts":893,"markets":176},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":7.436384969716829,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5749704840613932,"forecasts":1694,"markets":355},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":30.583132031367224,"medianReturnPct":26.224304053596533,"positiveShare":0.5335365853658537,"forecasts":328,"markets":142},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":1.8784544893205202,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5849194729136163,"forecasts":1366,"markets":276},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":19.96679997711154,"medianReturnPct":16.23818940892113,"positiveShare":0.7172236503856041,"forecasts":778,"markets":165},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":1.2493516878715731,"medianReturnPct":-22.99839753101074,"positiveShare":0.35365853658536583,"forecasts":82,"markets":46},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":22.172016585901304,"medianReturnPct":17.252725427020344,"positiveShare":0.7600574712643678,"forecasts":696,"markets":142},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":6.731323687176104,"medianReturnPct":29.032258064516125,"positiveShare":0.546875,"forecasts":1216,"markets":285},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":45.11321630935988,"medianReturnPct":32.450331125827816,"positiveShare":0.5570776255707762,"forecasts":219,"markets":113},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":-1.6996035788803157,"medianReturnPct":27.388535031847127,"positiveShare":0.5446339017051154,"forecasts":997,"markets":218},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":21.107398364904476,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5744400527009222,"forecasts":759,"markets":126},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-9.851909704928154,"medianReturnPct":-100,"positiveShare":0.43312101910828027,"forecasts":314,"markets":80},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":42.952842710808824,"medianReturnPct":37.931034482758626,"positiveShare":0.6741573033707865,"forecasts":445,"markets":80},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":36.429997850739134,"medianReturnPct":39.86013986013985,"positiveShare":0.6133603238866396,"forecasts":494,"markets":104},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":20.255860068002125,"medianReturnPct":31.57894736842105,"positiveShare":0.5263157894736842,"forecasts":171,"markets":61},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":44.992776676893975,"medianReturnPct":48.03849000740193,"positiveShare":0.6594427244582043,"forecasts":323,"markets":67},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":47.24520779700313,"medianReturnPct":55.03875968992248,"positiveShare":0.6229508196721312,"forecasts":305,"markets":79},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":53.34252937273369,"medianReturnPct":65.28925619834712,"positiveShare":0.5961538461538461,"forecasts":104,"markets":44},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"resolved","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":44.09037474289376,"medianReturnPct":52.67175572519084,"positiveShare":0.6368159203980099,"forecasts":201,"markets":54},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":15.691131755823347,"medianReturnPct":12.345679012345661,"positiveShare":0.6972972972972973,"forecasts":1295,"markets":249},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":0.213022892236535,"medianReturnPct":-16.767746662324978,"positiveShare":0.39375,"forecasts":160,"markets":66},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":17.87306780707789,"medianReturnPct":13.855421686746988,"positiveShare":0.7400881057268722,"forecasts":1135,"markets":220},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":5.174215028723493,"medianReturnPct":21.951219512195113,"positiveShare":0.586265366680797,"forecasts":2359,"markets":454},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":9.594859788973215,"medianReturnPct":-100,"positiveShare":0.4838709677419355,"forecasts":558,"markets":201},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":3.804576063582257,"medianReturnPct":23.076923076923077,"positiveShare":0.6179900055524709,"forecasts":1801,"markets":342},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":17.838714153972262,"medianReturnPct":14.564393939393938,"positiveShare":0.7037773359840954,"forecasts":1006,"markets":197},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":1.7973928926015292,"medianReturnPct":-21.507064364207224,"positiveShare":0.3761467889908257,"forecasts":109,"markets":50},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":19.787993995097583,"medianReturnPct":15.929203539823025,"positiveShare":0.7435897435897436,"forecasts":897,"markets":178},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":7.049938891730014,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.5735207967193907,"forecasts":1707,"markets":359},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":29.6439566930058,"medianReturnPct":24.621476822734678,"positiveShare":0.5301204819277109,"forecasts":332,"markets":145},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":1.5945105935310464,"medianReturnPct":25.786163522012572,"positiveShare":0.584,"forecasts":1375,"markets":278},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":19.830293233871732,"medianReturnPct":16.058394160583937,"positiveShare":0.7144686299615877,"forecasts":781,"markets":166},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":1.2493516878715731,"medianReturnPct":-22.99839753101074,"positiveShare":0.35365853658536583,"forecasts":82,"markets":46},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":22.010031727107805,"medianReturnPct":17.05426356589147,"positiveShare":0.7567954220314735,"forecasts":699,"markets":143},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":6.379554762189535,"medianReturnPct":28.32863988933353,"positiveShare":0.5450081833060556,"forecasts":1222,"markets":288},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":44.10054363756435,"medianReturnPct":32.144743677613974,"positiveShare":0.5540540540540541,"forecasts":222,"markets":115},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"all_time","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":-1.994504768143675,"medianReturnPct":27.388535031847127,"positiveShare":0.543,"forecasts":1000,"markets":219},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":19.668684965152668,"medianReturnPct":24.22360248447206,"positiveShare":0.5703225806451613,"forecasts":775,"markets":132},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":-11.327398542023206,"medianReturnPct":-100,"positiveShare":0.42724458204334365,"forecasts":323,"markets":85},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":5,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":41.81854109970532,"medianReturnPct":36.56667008588454,"positiveShare":0.672566371681416,"forecasts":452,"markets":82},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":35.15839054144492,"medianReturnPct":37.931034482758626,"positiveShare":0.6095617529880478,"forecasts":502,"markets":108},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":18.710162213816215,"medianReturnPct":29.87012987012987,"positiveShare":0.52,"forecasts":175,"markets":64},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":10,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":43.96095921831039,"medianReturnPct":47.05882352941178,"positiveShare":0.6574923547400612,"forecasts":327,"markets":69},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"all","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"seven_days","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":null,"medianReturnPct":null,"positiveShare":null,"forecasts":0,"markets":0},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"all","meanReturnPct":46.49452822686829,"medianReturnPct":55.03875968992248,"positiveShare":0.6201298701298701,"forecasts":308,"markets":81},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"YES","meanReturnPct":51.01074178087643,"medianReturnPct":65.28925619834712,"positiveShare":0.5887850467289719,"forecasts":107,"markets":46},{"scope":"geopolitics_global_elections","period":"last_60_days","basis":"projected","minimumSpreadPp":15,"horizon":"resolution","side":"NO","meanReturnPct":44.09037474289376,"medianReturnPct":52.67175572519084,"positiveShare":0.6368159203980099,"forecasts":201,"markets":54}],"caveats":["This is retrospective context, not a live promise or investment advice.","The resolved basis no longer waits for the graph's closed/resolved flag when a market's end date has passed and its odds are terminal; a wrong or stale end date can therefore admit a market before it truly settles.","The projected basis counts still-open markets at terminal odds as if they resolve the way the price points; a late reversal would rewrite those rows. Treat projected as a leading indicator.","The binary outcome is mapped from terminal YES odds on both bases; markets without odds strictly below 1% or above 99% are excluded entirely.","Both reported samples weight each market once, so repeatedly-forecast markets do not dominate the averages; per-forecast weighting is intentionally not reported.","Directional accuracy (qAccuracy, marketAccuracy) is flattered by lopsided markets — calling a 95% market counts the same as calling a coin flip — so compare the two accuracies and the Brier scores together rather than quoting one accuracy alone.","Recent cohorts are incomplete because the last-60-day resolved view includes only forecasts whose markets already count as resolved.","Percentage returns can be highly skewed for inexpensive shares; inspect medians, sample counts, and positiveShare with means.","Seven-day coverage here uses graph-stored marketPriceAt7d or delta7d only; the Marimo notebook may cover additional rows from its local companion CLOB cache."]}